Upgrade space by days to departure

For each of the 2 upgrade options 2LNR checked at both ends of the calendar, upgrade space showed on a bigger share of checked route-dates 241 to 330 days before departure than in the last 3 days.

Each figure is the share of route-dates (one route on one day) with upgrade space on at least one flight, out of the route-dates 2LNR checked in the week before each summary was built on October 7, 2026, for 2 upgrade options.

It measures what the checks found, not when an airline opens upgrade space or whether an upgrade will confirm, and it shows no seat counts.

Figures from summaries built through . Each summary counts the checks from the 7 days before it was built.

Updated .

How often did upgrade space show, by days to departure?

2 upgrade options, in eight bands of days to departure. Each cell is the share of checked route-dates with upgrade space, over how many route-dates were checked.

Share of checked route-dates with upgrade space, by upgrade and days to departure, from summaries built on October 7, 2026
Upgrade 0 to 3 days4 to 7 days8 to 14 days15 to 30 days31 to 60 days61 to 120 days121 to 240 days241 to 330 days
SWU space to Business on AA-operated flights 1% of 808 11% of 871 19% of 1,528 20% of 3,188 16% of 5,834 14% of 11,354 13% of 25,190 17% of 22,180
Cert space to First on AS-operated flights 19% of 639 49% of 648 44% of 1,150 38% of 2,621 36% of 5,027 29% of 10,131 45% of 20,407 46% of 16,168

Each upgrade name links to the guide for that airline. The SWU search guide shows how to read the same checks date by date and flight by flight in the upgrade matrix. For award seats rather than upgrades, see award space by days to departure.

How it's measured

A share is only as good as its definitions. Here's what each term means and where the numbers come from.

Definitions

Route-date
One route on one departure date, for one upgrade. A route with three flights that day is still one route-date.
Checked
At least one flight on the route-date had a check in the 7 days before the summary was built. Route-dates with no check that week are left out of the share, and a band with none reads Not checked yet.
Upgrade space
At least one flight on the route-date showed space for that upgrade, in that cabin, at its latest check. Only flights the airline operates itself count.
Days to departure
Counted from the day the summary was built to the departure date, in eight bands that are finer close to departure. The check behind a route-date can be up to 7 days older than the summary, so read a band's edges as approximate.
Which upgrades appear
Systemwide upgrades to Business on American-operated flights, and the upgrade certificate to First on Alaska-operated flights. Other upgrades, including other airlines' and those on partner airlines, aren't on this page.

Where the numbers come from

  1. 2LNR checks upgrade space on the airlines in the table and stores each result per flight, date and cabin, with the time it was checked.
  2. Those checks build the upgrade matrix you search. Each time it updates, it saves what every route showed on every date.
  3. This page adds up those summaries for each upgrade, from the ones built on October 7, 2026. Nothing here is estimated or typed by hand.

What these figures can't tell you

  • It isn't a release schedule. Upgrade space moves as an airline re-forecasts a flight, so a share describes the flights checked that week and changes when they're checked again.
  • It isn't the odds that an upgrade confirms. Whether space showed is one input; the airline's own process decides the rest.
  • Checks don't reach every flight every week, so every share shows how many route-dates it's out of. A small count is a thin sample.
  • No seat counts. A route-date counts as having space whether one seat showed or several.
  • The figures come from the same summaries the upgrade matrix is built from, so they match what the matrix showed when each summary was built.

Cite this

Quoting a figure? Cite this page and the build dates beside it.

Suggested citation:

2LNR. “Upgrade space by days to departure.” Summaries built on October 7, 2026. https://2lnr.com/data/upgrade-space-by-days-out

Machine-readable copy:

Download the figures as CSV: one row per upgrade and band, each with its checked count and the build dates.

Questions about these figures

Does this page show when airlines open upgrade space?
No. It shows how often upgrade space showed on the route-dates 2LNR checked, grouped by days to departure. A share describes what one week of checks found, not an opening date. Upgrade space has no schedule-open date to aim at, which 2LNR's guide to when award seats open up explains.
Does a bigger share mean my upgrade will confirm?
No. A share is how often space showed across the route-dates checked, not the chance that one upgrade request confirms. The airline's own process decides that, and it looks at more than whether space showed.
What does a 0% cell mean?
A 0% cell means 2LNR checked route-dates in that band of days to departure and none showed space for that upgrade at its latest check. The count beside the share is how many were checked, and one route-date with space would lift the cell above 0%. It describes that week of checks, not whether space ever opens.
Why does a cell say Not checked yet?
2LNR had no check on any route-date in that band, for that upgrade, in the 7 days before the summary was built. There's no share to print, and it doesn't mean there was no upgrade space.

Find the flights behind these figures

The upgrade matrix shows the same checks date by date and flight by flight. Free for the next 14 days of departures, no credit card required.

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